Monday, 30 December 2019

(Post 147/Year 3 Week 13)Event and convention 3:AFA SG 2019(Anime Festival Asia)

Personally, I went to AFA (Anime Festival Asia) on a yearly basis except last year, because nothing was of interest to me.

Decided to go this year because of the great anisong lineup on fri (Fhana, TRUE, Uchida Maaya, and Scandal), arrived at SUNTEC around 3 pm (My first Anisong concert!)

Wanted to save the booking fee by purchasing an on-site ticket, but the alias booking fee was still included ($103, very expensive!).



Below are some of the exhibition photos, for those who are veterans of AFA, the AFA exhibition is mostly the same year-on-year basis.

Merchandise were pretty much all the famous anime e.g Kimetsu No Yaiba,sword online etc

(The crowd in the picture below says it all,squeezy!!)

1)Greeted at the entrance by a rx-78-2 GUNDAM


2) AKIBA stage


3)The queue at MUSE(anime merchandise store)


AFA merchandise are pretty marked up!(word of advice,buy anime merchandise outside of such convention unless its the creator hub)

4)People trying out new boku no hero(not pico,guys!) game



5)Back at AKIBA stage with DEAR KISS performing!(You would normally find me at AKIBA Stage on a normal AFA day)


Spend the remaining of my time trying out the various trading card games to get free pack and card!(battle Sprit and Yu-Gi-Oh)


Basically , people who go AFA can be divided into four categories:

1.the Anisong concert attendee(who only cares about the concert)

2.the first timer(those who want to experience AFA once)

3.the buying frenzy(never understand why they do that,most AFA anime merchandise are mark up)

4.the stage and wotagei (The smart guy who knows every anisong , waving and performing with lightstick and jumping to anisong)

The best part of the AKIBA stage is the DJ playing anisong, of course, although if you're not familiar with anisong, you'll still have a great time because of the crowd's enthusiasm And what's afa without some cosplay pics ...





And finally ,the most exiting part of the day,the anisong concert!


No picture or video to be taken during the event(god knows why they had to set up those recording equipment in the middle of the concert hall)






The artiste lineup is as follows (Fhana,Uchida Mayaa,TRUE,Scandal)

Brief discription of Fhana(Coutesy from wikipedia):Fhána (stylized as fhána) is a four-member Japanese pop band that formed in 2012 as an indie band. .Fhána originally formed with Jun'ichi Satō, Yuxuki Waga, and Kevin Mitsunaga, all three of whom had previously been active in separate independent bands. Fhána did not have a fixed vocalist at first, instead employing guest vocalists to sing the band's songs.Towana later joined Fhána as the official vocalist

Some picture of Fhana from AFA facebok(mostly Towana)...



Fhana setlist as below


I was a bit disappointed that Fhana setlist did not include moon river and hello my world!

Aozora no rhapsody was of course the highlight(chu chu yeah!!),Boku no Mitsukete ,niji no ametara and hoshizuku no interlude is one of my favourites from the fhana too

About 5 mins into the concert,i notice that the person left and right wasn't very enthu,and it did kinda pissed me off a little ,hahaha(i suppose most people came to see scandal only)

2 song i recommend from Fhana!

1.Boku no mitsukete




2. Moon river




TRUE is one of my favorite solo singers (she's also very pretty!) and is backed by solid vocals.




TRUE setlist as below



Again, a slight disappointment that TRUE setlist did not include divine spell, which is my second most favorite song from her, it would have been a definite uplifting concert tune. The highlight for me was when she sang STEEL-Tekketsu no Kizuna-, one of my favorite songs that I play regularly.

2 song i recommend from TRUE!

1.STEEL -Tekketsu no Kizuna-




2.Divine Spell


Uchida mayaa is my favorite Voice actress(and no offense i think she is one of the most prettiest va around)


Mayaa setlist as below




A little suprised that she sang cosmos given that it wasn't any anime song,(but its my favourite song from her ,so no complain!:D)

Karappo capsule was probably the period when i start to lose my voice due to all the shouting and it wasn't even Scandal yet!(hahaha)


Another slightly pissed off moment was when mayaa segment was about to start and someone said "Mayaa who?"(hahaha)

2 song i recommend from Mayaa!

1. C.O.S.M.O.S




2.Youthful beautiful




And finally the highlight of the concert:Scandal!





Scandal setlist


The audience was pretty wild when they begin their segment with "masterpiece" which is not an anisong.

Most people know Scandal through their anisong in bleach,so it was really fun to hear them belting out old anisong favourite such as Shoujo S ,Harukaze and Shunkan Sentimental

Scandal also belt out a new song from their album "kiss from the darkness",A.M.D.K.J ,which apparently is the first time it is being play live(a good treat to the fans,i must say!)

2 Song i recommend from Scandal!

1.Masterpiece




2.Yoake no Ryuuseigun






Would have love to go for JUNNA on saturday but then it would be a waste of money as i do not listen to the other saturday artist song though,maybe i will get around to it?who knows?

Great respect for those who spend the money to watch only one segment performance!

All in all,AFA exhibition get only an okay for me as the exhibition is same old,same old.But the Anisong concert make the experience ten times better(and probably 10 times more expensive also!)

Sunday, 29 December 2019

(Post 146/Year 3 week 13)Event and Convention part 2:Trip To Invest Fair 2019! part 2

Continue from the last post...



Valuation model

Discounted cash flow model 

Company Name:Singapore O&G(Listed on SGX)
Market cap: 188.337
Last Done:0.395
Free cash flow per share:0.02764
Intrinsic value:0.326

Company Name:Raffles Medical(Local Peer SGX)
Market cap :1,882.653
Last Done:1.030
Free cash flow per share:0.03504
Intrinsic Value:0.414

Company Name: TalkMed(Local Peer SGX)
Market cap:657.251
Last Done:0.500
Free cash flow per share:0.01989
Intrinsic Value:0.235

Discounted Earning Model 

Company Name: Singapore O&G(Listed on SGX)
Market Cap: 188.337
Last Done:0.395
Earnings Per Share:0.01919
Intrinsic value:0.227

Company Name:Raffles Medical( Local Peer SGX)
Market Cap:1,882,653
Last Done: 1.030
Earnings Per Share:0.03887
Intrinsic Value:0.459

Company Name:Talkmed(Local Peer SGX)
Market Cap:657.251
Last Done:0.500
Earnings Per Share:0.02199
Intrinsic Value:0.260



Financial Analysis

Strong Financial Results Last 3 Years
  • It has increasing revenue increase in last 3 consecutive years
  • The company has strong financial strength(Piotroski F-score 8-9)
  • It has good cash ratio of at least 0.8 for 3 consecutive years and no debt as net cash
  • It has consistently high profit margin of at least 40% for 3 years
  • It has consistent high net profit of at least 20% for last 3 years
  • ROA(Return of asset) is above 10% for 3 consecutive years 

Compound Annual Growth Rare(CAGR) 

Notes:
1.CAGR calculation are based on Full year financial results announcements over the past few years
2.CAGR calculation will not be made if any of the Full Year Financial are not based on 12 months 
3.Adjusted CAGR calculations takes into account effects of applicable corporate action(e.g stock splits and consolidation) and the current number of shares

Revenue 
Over the last 3 year:+28.22%

Net earnings
Over the last 3 year:+19.65%

Earning Per Share(EPS)- Historical
Over the last 3 year:-10.43%

Earning Per Share(Adjusted)
Over the last 3 year:+19.65%

Dividend Per Share(DPS) -Historical
Over the last 3 year:-5.74%

Dividend Per Share(DPS)- Adjusted
Over the last 3 year:+22.35%

Technical Overview below





Investment Summary 

Evaluation

Summary
  • The company has strong financial strength,no debt,high profit margin and in a recession proof industry 
  • Based on Lyn's Research Technical chart also indicate a BUY for this stock(BULLISH)
  • Based on Discounted Cash Flow model(DCF) and Discounted Earning Model(DCM),it is trading at a discount in terns of its intrinsic value as compared to its peer Talk Med and Raffle Hospital 
  • Singapore O&G is lagging behind the market due to uncertainties regarding the healthcare industry due to rising trade war tension between US and China,leading to less medical tourist.This seems to put this stock in what we call a special situation: a potentially undervalued stock due to great concerns regarding its future earnings.Also a recession may happen in Singapore within the next 2 years ,hence we like it as an investment in a well-diversified portfolio,as it could yield an asymmetric return in a relatively short period of time 
  • Strong BUY
(Quite an interesting presentation i must say, next up i have an presentation on stock pitch kimly,but it seem i have only one picture,somehow the other pictures were lost)


Thesis
  • PE ratio 13.8 is relatively cheap
  • Dividend yield of 5.37% is relatively good
  • Balance sheet relatively strong
  • Weighing the risk and reward,recommend a buy/long position for Kimly at $0.235
  • For conservative investors,recommend a buy/long position at $0.210(10% margin of safety based on $0.235)

Other interesting brochures that i have collected during the event...

What is a CFD?


A contact for Difference(CFD) is a tradable instrument that mirror the movement of the underlying asset.It allow traders to take advantage of the asset price movement without physical ownership 

CFD Benefits 

  • CFDs add a greater flexibility to traders in their trading strategies.In addition to trading long position as traditional stock investors. CFD traders have the options to take on short position.Hence,gain can potentially made in both bull or bear market
  • CFD provide the ability to hedge an existing physical portfolio
  • No expiry mean no time delay
  • Access a wide range of global markets and trade multi assets thorough a single online CFD trading account
  • Efficient use of traders capital 
  • CFD provide leverage to traders so that they can trade without the need of depositing the full value of a position.This allows traders to utilize excess capital more efficiently rather than being committed to one transaction



Dividend Portfolio

Dividend investing is an investment strategy which focus on purchasing dividend paying stocks or REITS to generate a steady stream of passive income

Metrics to screen for Dividend Stocks/REITS

  • Dividend Yield > 4%
  • Dividend Pay-out Ratio < 1x
  • Net Debt to Equity <0.5x
  • CAGR of DPU >2% for past 3 year
  • Total Debt to Total Assets < 0.4x (for REITs and Trusts)
Dividend is most suitable for investors with the below characteristic:

1.Low-Moderate Risk Tolerance Level 
2. Long investment Horizon
3.Low Effort & Time & Portfolio Monitoring



Growth Portfolio 

Growth investing aims to identify companies that have promising future growth potential,even if they have high valuation ratio

Metrics to screen for Growth Stocks 

Revenue Growth >15% for past 3 years 
Gross Margins > 25% for past 3 years
Price Upside from Analyst Consensus Estimates > 20%

Growth investing is most suitable for investors with the below characteristics 

1.High Risk Tolerance Level
2.Long Investment Horizon
3.Moderate Effort & Time for Portfolio Monitoring



Value Portfolio

Value investing focuses on buying companies for less than what they are worth (margin of safety),and then selling them when they approach their actual value (Intrinsic value)

Metrics to screen for undervalued Stocks

  • Compounded Earnings Growth  > 10% for past 3 years
  • Return Equity > 10% for past 1 year
  • Net Debt to Equity < 1x
  • Trailing P/E Ratio  < 15x
Value Investing is most suitable for investors with the below characteristics:

1.Moderate Risk Tolerance Level 
2.Moderate-Long Investment Horizon
3.Moderate & time for Portfolio Monitoring



Trend Following Portfolio 

Trend Following is a technical analysis approach that detect stocks in the initial stage of a trend and aims to ride on the trend for big profit

Metrics to screen for Trend Following Stocks
  • RSI (n =20) > 50 FOR 1 day
  • ADX Trend( N=20) above 25 for 1 day 
  • Bullish ADX + DI  > -DI(N =20)
  • Price >MA50 for 1 day 
Trend Following is most suitable for investors with the below characteristics:

1.High Risk Tolerance Level 

2.Short Investment Horizon 

3.High Effort & Time for Portfolio Monitoring



SGX Investor Resources

Be empowered by SGX's suite of investor resources.Designed and developed for all investments,from novices to professionals,we provide you the tools and technique to achieved informed investment decisions

Research- sgx.com/mygateway

Stay in touch with Singapore stock market with weekly curation of market news and investor education events

On-the-go- SGX Mobile App

Get first-hand news with live market updates on your customised watchlists through SGX Mobile App

Tool - sgx.com/stockfacts

Plug into SGX Stockfacts to access the stock fundamentals on all SGX-listed companies

Education - sgx.com/academy

Sharpen your investment acumen at SGX Academy with our team of professional trainers

That's basically sums up the brochure and the event,all in all a great convention to go full of like-minded people.Looking forward to the FSM invest EXPO 2020!

Friday, 27 December 2019

(Post 145/Year 3 week 13)Event and Convention part 1:Trip To Invest Fair 2019!

17 AUGUST 2019 Saturday
171819 (Sat) Day One
Well,i haven't been to invest fair for ages(not since 2016 anyway,haha).So I thought i will pop down to it this year.
This year invest fair is situated at suntec conventional center,the last time i went was outsie ngee ann city,compare to that suntec seeem like a better choice
I did not took much picture about the event areas(but i did took many brochures though)
Basically this is what is did...
1.Walk around the whole exhibition 
2.Sign up for the LIM&TAN securities(why?:Because dbsv no longer give company report)
3.Sign up for CIMB (Why?:Also for the company report)
4.Sign up for an SAXO account(why?:After researching,i deem it to be one of the best brokerage to buy US stock,oh i got an umbrella also free gift! who doesn't love free gift?)
5.Listen to stock pitch
Here are some picture taken during the stock pitch from investingnote top member(Lim guang sheng and lynlyn)

The stock that they are promoting is Singpore O&G(stock code:1D8)



As of 31 December 2018,the Group has a total of 14 medical specialist medical practitioners,across four business segment -O&G, Cancer-related,Dermatology and Pediatricians,comprising :

-Six O&G Specialists 
-Three Cancer Specialists:One Gynae-Oncologist and two breast and General Surgeons
-Two Dermatologists
-Three Pediatricians

SOG was listed on the Catalist boarrd of the Singapore Exchange Securities Trading limited
since 4 June 2015


Company Overview:OVERALL GROWTH

Business Strategy

Progressive approach
  • Recruit more O&G Specialists to enlarge core O&G segment of the group
  • Build up patient load for Pediatrics segment 
  • Increase level of inter-clinic referrals through synergy awareness
  • Continue to grow non O&G business segment to increase revenue and profit
Overseas strategy 
  • Look out for overseas opportunities,especially in area where are not just financial but also,the humanitarian and other ancillary perspective 

INVESTMENT THESIS

Singapore O&G ability to future market growth,based on the well established track record on Primary and Secondary healthcare for Women and Children create an optimistic investment that has been undervalued in the market 

Recommendation :Buy FY 2019,Current Price $0.395, Price target: $0.50 (26.6%)

(Some of you may be curious and check,as of now Singapore O&G is $0.29 Date:25/11/2019,this is within expectation as after the stock pitch i went up to them and ask whether the O&G stock price will drop due to Singapore recession ,they did confirm it,so dun't blast them for their inaccurate information)

Risk

  • Company is dependent on its continued ability to retain their key management personnel and specialist medical practitioners 
  • Singapore O&G is exposed to risks in respect of outbreaks especially Zika virus 

CATALYSTS 

  • Growing number of cancer related problems for women 
  • Singapore's healthcare system has gained international recognition for its efficiency and coverage with all citizens and permanent residents enjoying coverage by Medishield Life for basic medical coverage

INDUSTRY ANALYSIS 
OVERALL HEALTHCARE 

  • Healthcare is a recession proof industry.Below data point to a probable recession in Singapore.Defensive stock amid economic uncertainty for 2020
  • Asia's overall healthcare spending is projected to surge to US$2.27t by 2026 from US $1.69t in 2017,driven by higher healthcare cost,the rising incidence of chronic diseases,a burgeoning middle class and an overall shift in the age  
Porter' FIVE FORCES ANALYSIS

New Entrants(Low-Medium)
  • High startup costs and the industry is extremely capital intensive and need medical specialists to run create barrier to entry to this healthcare industry in Singapore
Substitutes(Low)

  • The primary substitute is the government hospital.People come to private healthcare for better performance and service hence threat is low
Supplier Bargaining(MEDIUM-HIGH)

  • Medical specialists,healthcare staffs and medical equipment are needed to support Singapore O&G healthcare services.Specialists with experience are hard to be replaced
Buyer Bargaining (MEDIUM)
  • Demand for women and children private healthcare service is increasing and patients visit Singapore O&G for their healthcare service 
Industry Rivalry  (MEDIUM)

  • Compete solely based on reputation and good service to maintain market share and stay afloat



Industry analysis

Strengths
  • Leading group of specialist medical practitioners, with a long and established track record in the Obstetrics and Gynecology
  • Balance sheet remain health with cash and cash equipvalents at $25.1 million as at 31 march 2019 compared to $21.5 million as at 31 december 2018.The group has no borrowings as at 31 March 2019
Weakness 
  • Operationally,expenses were higher in Q1 2019 compared to Q1 2028 due to a 21.5% increase in consumables and medical supplies used in procedures by all segments 
  • Smaller market cap compared to peers 
Opportunity
  • Growing number of cancer related problem for women
  • Singapore healthcare system has gain international regonition for its efficiency and coverwage with all citizens and permanent resisdents applying coverage by Medishield Life for basic medical coverage
Threats
  • Dermatology segment registered s$0.3 milliion decline in revenue from Q1 2018 due to increasingly competitive landscape for this segment 
  • Private players were left to fight the remaining 22-23% of the mrket,the tertiary healthcare market in Singapoe is monopolisted by public hospitl which snapped up 77.8% of admission in 2018


Industry analysis

Weakness analysis

There are some weakness in the Dermatology segment,however but we are confident that the company  has the ability to strengthen with the growth in anti aging business as reported by some key players as reflected by table(Unfortunately,my picture wasn't clear enough)



Overall Growth

  • In 2018,despite a 1.3% decline in total live-births to 39.115 from 39.615 in 2017,Singaproe O&G segment registered 108 more birth in FY 2018,bringing the total number of babies delivered in FY 2018 to 1,824 as compared to 1,716 in FY 2017
  • With growing demand for O&G services,Singapore O&G plan to further increase their specialist in FY 2019 ,which is a growing pie for this company to tap on 
  • In Singapore,statistics have shown shown that cancer cases has been rising and breast cancer is the top cancer affecting women .Our highly-trained cancer-related specialist provide an extensive range of breast care services,both medical and surgical to treat diseases of the breast and also educate our patient and their families to conduct regular self-examinations for early detection.In FY 2018, our cancer-related segment account for 15.3% of the group total revenue(Once again,apologize for poor photo taking)
Will continue at the next Post!